In April, NASA scientist Dennis Bushnell postulated that the advent of LENR would, among other things, change geopolitics and geoeconomics. This article explores the background in which these changes are to occur and some of the implications of said changes. This article was written by Sojourner Soo.
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The world capitalist system is currently undergoing a radical shifting of economic power, from what Immanuel Wallerstein calls the “core” states (USA, Germany, Italy, France, Japan, the UK, and, to a lesser extent, Canada) to the formerly “peripheral” and “semi-peripheral” states, the so-called “emerging, or BRIC, states (Brazil, Russia, India and China). The emergence of the Rossi E-Cat, provided it proves to be real, will contribute to this transition in ways both known and unknown.
This far-reaching shift in the centers of economic power is often described as part and parcel of the effect known as the Kondratieff (or Kondratiev) long wave, or K-Wave, an economic business cycle which occurs at the global level. Sinusoidal in nature, the Kondratieff wave is often divided into four ‘seasons’, namely, the Kondratieff Spring (improvement as new technology is deployed), the Summer (acceleration or prosperity, as innovation proceeds and employment and income levels increase) of the ascendant period, Fall (recession or plateau, as old technologies reach their useful limits and the capitalist system reaches the limits of growth), and Winter (acceleration or depression, as the global economy collapses) of the downward period, the trough of the K-Wave.
The world capitalist system is now in an accelerated downward phase and quickly headed toward the coldest phase, economically speaking, of the Kondratieff Winter, a protracted worldwide depression. This period will be extremely difficult for everyone on the planet – socially, politically, and economically, since will be accompanied by widespread unemployment, which is certain to be exacerbated by government austerity programs meant to deal with intolerable levels of sovereign debt and the unavoidable likelihood of a collapse of the global banking system.
As the Winter season worsens, we will likely see some terrible things, the inescapable consequence of widespread unemployment and which will, in turn, lead to tremendous levels of social unrest across the entire planet. Greece is right now experiencing a small taste of this, as its government implements austerity measures and drastic cuts in expenditures, in order to stave off defaulting on the nations sovereign debts. The swelling “Occupy Movement” has all the earmarks of a global revolution, a predictable public reaction to the excesses found in the waning days of the Kondratieff Autumn, a period characterized by extraordinary speculative greed, the concomitant high levels of sovereign debt, and price bubbles — in which the price per barrel of oil skyrocketed to $140 in 2008 — as well as the socialization of the costs of failed banks and bankrupt corporations onto taxpayers. A protracted world war will also likely take place involving NATO nations, in an effort to retain their economic hegemony. This will take place as the former core nation-states make the difficult transition to peripheral and semi-peripheral status. The USA, given its tremendous military power, will probably use its power to try to retain some of its current economic and political powers, as will all the NATO countries. The almost guaranteed transition to peripheral and semi-peripheral status for the NATO countries will undoubtedly be accompanied by a great loss of life.
Once the global banking system fails — many think that will happen this month — along with the disintegration of global stock and bond markets, the existing petrodollar-based world capitalist system will simply collapse. The banks will close, until they are somehow adequately recapitalized. In order to accomplish that, the central bankers and economists will have to dream up a new global financial system, around which to organize trade relationships. Perhaps, as is suggested elsewhere, a new energy-based currency system will first emerge at the local level. Global trade will continue, but it will be drastically reduced. International demand for oil will drop drastically alongside the increase in unemployment and the decrease in trade.
Soon after the global economic crash, the demand for Rossi’s technology will simply skyrocket, even if the physics isn’t fully understood. The price of oil will decline precipitously, making expensive oil and gas projects, such as the Alberta tar sands development, economically unfeasible. The Middle East oil industry and others will continue to exist; it just won’t be as profitable. A mad scramble will certainly ensue, as the powerful nations try to gain control over Rossi’s new LENR technology. This period will mark the start of the new energy era, as the technology is rapidly deployed.
At present, the emerging economies will find LENR technology highly useful; the G8 nations not so much, until the E-Cats are making electricity. The constraints imposed by existing infrastructure likely accounts for Rossi’s focus on the larger reactors, which can be more quickly integrated into the existing system and applied to the current energy infrastructure.
The more advanced countries, or what we now call the more advanced countries, are going to be stuck with their existing energy grid/infrastructure for some time. For this reason, I doubt commercialized home E-Cats become a priority on the North American continent. AmpEnergo, Rossi’s US distributor, clearly recognizes this fact, since they’ve indicated little interest in pursuing the wide distribution of home E-Cats on this side of the ocean. They will focus on the bigger units. Europeans, however, will likely have more use for the smaller E-Cats, since it has many older buildings that can put the E-Cats to use as boilers immediately.
Given the constraints of the existing infrastructure/energy grid in the advanced countries, it will be the emerging economies, especially China and India, and the currently underdeveloped, poorer nations, such as Africa, and those nations that are not currently hindered by an existing infrastructure, which will have the better opportunity to use the smaller E-Cat heat energy more productively. Thus, these nations will experience an almost immediate increase in their standards of living. This will probably work to their advantage, cementing even further the decline of US and EU economic hegemony. Canada’s tar sands will shut down rather quickly, I suspect, since they are simply too expensive and environmentally destructive.
The Winter phase will last for a period of at least 10 years or more, before the Kondratieff Spring truly arrives. After that, things will really start improving economically on a global scale. Employment levels will have increased tremendously, and things will generally start looking pretty good for humanity. We will, of course, survive and adapt to the changes wrought by the K-Wave and the subsequent widespread application of LENR technology. Some of those changes will, initially, be quite remarkable, as this new technology works its way through the global economic system. The current E-Cat will, itself, undergo rapid improvement and spur tremendous scientific innovation, as new ways of using this technology are discovered. We will quite rapidly, in the grand scheme of things, evolve toward the new energy equilibrium. I hope I am alive to see it all take place. I only hope it has not come too late to save the Polar Regions. By the way, protect your assets: Use credit unions instead of commercial banks and buy gold and silver. We’re all in for a rocky ride in the near future.
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